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Feb 10, 2026
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LONG
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"The Commerce Department is planning to waive some of the taxes for the so-called hyperscalers on chips that they buy from Taiwan Semiconductor." The threat of tariffs was a major overhang for TSM. If the US government admits that onshoring 40% of supply is "impossible" (as stated by Taiwan's negotiator) and grants waivers, TSM retains its pricing power and volume without the friction of trade war taxes. Bullish for TSM as it removes a geopolitical regulatory cap on their sales to US Tech Giants. The waivers are voluntary or conditional on US investment, which could drag on margins. |
CNBC
Squawk Pod: Kalshi CEO on Super Bowl wins & N...
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Feb 10, 2026
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WATCH
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"Alphabet tapping the US debt market to raise $20 billion... capital expenditures this year could reach up to $185 billion." This is an unprecedented level of spend. While it shows commitment to AI, it drastically reduces Free Cash Flow (FCF) in the short term. The trade here is ambiguous: it's bullish for the *suppliers* of that spend (NVDA, Energy), but potentially bearish for Google's margins if the ROI doesn't materialize quickly. Watch. The stock may struggle to appreciate if investors balk at the massive CapEx bill without immediate revenue spikes. AI becomes a commodity and the $185B spend results in margin compression. |
CNBC
Squawk Pod: Kalshi CEO on Super Bowl wins & N...
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Feb 06, 2026
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WATCH
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Amazon shares are trading lower following mixed quarterly results and a massive increase in capital expenditure guidance. The company raised its full-year spending forecast to $200 billion to ramp up AI investment. Investors are wary of this ballooning cost structure, as Amazon makes up a significant chunk of the "Big Four" tech companies' combined $650 billion projected spend. Full-year spending forecast raised to $200 billion. If AI monetization accelerates faster than expected, the heavy spend could be justified. |
CNBC
Squawk Pod: Jennifer Garner & Once Upon A Far...
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